Wednesday, September 03, 2008

sitting in the dark

For comparison with the July 2008 results I posted last week - July 2005, again from TV3/TNS:

July Original Actual # Correct %
Labour 39 333.06 33.31%
National 39 333.06 33.31%
NZ First 7 59.78 5.98%
Green Party 6 51.24 5.12%
ACT 1.6 13.664 1.37%
United Future 1.4 11.956 1.20%
Maori Party 2.2 18.788 1.88%
Alliance 0.1 0.854 0.09%
Christian Heritage 0.4 3.416 0.34%
Progressive 0.4 3.416 0.34%
Destiny NZ 0.6 5.124 0.51%
All Others 2.3 19.642 1.96%
Base: 854
Don’t know/ undecided 12 120 12.00%
Would not vote 3 30 3.00%


The undecided vote seems to stay quite consistent at around the 11-12% mark at this point in the election cycle (cf the period directly after the election when it drops to 3 and 4%). The level of support for Labour is 3 points off now versus then; but National is up 8 points. They don't seem to be taking it off Labour, so where is the support coming from?

The answer seems to be that they are feeding off the parties to the right and to the centre - NZ First, Act, United Future, the Christian parties. They also seem to have picked up the people who last time around said they weren't going to vote (3% in 2005, 1.7% in 2008). The problem for National is that they cannibalising support partners, something that Labour doesn't seem to be doing to their left-of-centre partner, The Greens. But Labour's problem is that their voters seem more likely to just throw in the towel and stay home, versuses a seemingly fed-up right-wing. If the 2005/6 poll results can be trusted, it looks to me as though voters for NZ First believed that Winston would stick with National rather than Labour (the numbers dropped the month after election day by 2.2 points). While you can never trust NZ First to stay down after a rightous kicking, voters may have finally learned their lesson.

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